2010-08-03 (Tuesday) by Gregory Tucker.

I haven’t been updating my personal blog lately, but it is only because I have been so busy. Life is finally starting to settle down, except for one thing–iPhone 4 is still missing in action. They are backordered 4-6 weeks throughout most SoftBank dealers in Japan.

My friend recently asked me a question about Cancun. He was planning a trip for next summer. Below is his question and my response.

So, I looked over your blog on your trip to Mexico. I have to admit I’m a bit sketched out about visiting the developing world. We were going to rent a condo in Akumal, but a coworker told me her experience of getting to hers after dark and not being able to get in and driving around in Mexico looking for a place to stay, and then getting the squats for her last three days, and being sketched out by the developing world part of Mexico. Did you ever feel uncomfortable there?

I may not be the best person to ask. I have traveled numerous times to places like South Korea, Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and Maldives, not to mention traditionally developed places like Australia’s gold coast, the American protectorate of Guam, and 3 islands of Hawaii. I did my honeymoon (with my ex-wife) in Costa Rica. Plus you know I lived in Japan for 10 years and am living here again. My wife has spent two weeks in the outbacks of India and has traveled several times to Hong Kong and China. She laments with the kids we don’t have money to do more traveling.

So Mexico didn’t seem all that daunting. The area in and around Cancun is fairly safe and family oriented. If you get any hotel along Cancun beach you can count on it being safe and clean. The kids are proud to say they have been to Mexico, and they often tell us they want to go back. (I think I mentioned we stayed at the Hilton at Cancun Beach). We were somewhat slightly more adventurous than your average Americans, I suppose, but only slightly. We put a priority on doing things you can only do in Mexico, which included visiting ruins, snorkeling, and eating more authentic Mexican food.

That said we had a couple snags. Driving a car is a bit harrowing. After 4 days of intense driving, I got sick of it and decided to do some things closer to the hotel for our last couple days. Mexicans routinely ignore speed limits, so they put these speed bumps all over the place where you least expect it. You try to keep an eye on them and slow down, but I had a couple near misses where, in the middle of nowhere, I almost took out my suspension. We did get defrauded at one gas station. I told my wife to bring and pay cash, but she insisted credit cards were better. Anyway the gas station attendent told us our card was rejected and so we paid cash, but upon returning we found a fraudulent charge on our credit card anyway. Bank of America took care of that but it required several calls and faxes, all for a $50 fraud charge. Plus it was my card and I was without a cash card for a few weeks until the replacement arrived. I ran out of cash in Boston. I hope my wife will listen to me next time, but I doubt it.

I am not sure if this answers your questions, but in general I would not worry much about spending a few days around Cancun. The kids will love it and there is no shortage of activities for everyone.

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2008-09-30 (Tuesday) by Gregory Tucker.

IMF has recently released a study of past banking crises, and how the regulators responded to them. Only in a minority of cases did they buy up the bad loans–there are other methods available too. While I am skeptical of IMF in general, this paper contains very good information.

This paper presents a new database on the timing of systemic banking crises and policy responses to resolve them. The database covers the universe of systemic banking crises for the period 1970-2007, with detailed data on crisis containment and resolution policies for 42 crisis episodes, and also includes data on the timing of currency crises and sovereign debt crises. The database extends and builds on the Caprio, Klingebiel, Laeven, and Noguera (2005) banking crisis database, and is the most complete and detailed database on banking crises to date. 

 http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2008/wp08224.pdf

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2008-09-26 (Friday) by Gregory Tucker.

Recently my dad sent me this SPAM chain letter. He should have known better. I wonder how many of the other recipients are going to pass on this nonsense more more fools, then to more fools, etc.

The math is simply wrong. 85,000,000,000 divided by 200,000,000 is equivalent to 85,000 divided by 200. Simple math. Even without using a calculator, you can see that cannot possibly equal $425,000. In fact, the real number is $425 per adult citizen (I had to use a calculator for that). The author intentionally confused trillion with billion, knowing most Americans won’t understand the difference–humans have trouble comprehending large numbers. Look at the way they presented the numbers in an inconsistent and confusing manner.

The AIG bailout included warrants (basically call [buy] options associated with a bond) that dillute  80% of the shareholders value, allowing the Federal Treasury to participate in much of the upside to AIG’s liquidation. This is the correct way to do a bailout–some estimates of the banking bailout in Sweden suggest the tally of socialized costs was about nothing, meaning the bailout was entirely successful at rescuing the financial system without socializing all the costs.

By now, most of us have heard of the $85 billion bailout of AIG.

Instead, let’s consider giving that money  to Americans.

To make the math simple, let’s assume there are 200,000,000 bonafide U.S. Citizens 18+.

Our population is about 301,000,000 +/- counting every man, woman and child. So 200,000,000 might be a fair stab at adults 18 and up..

So divide 200 million adults 18+ into $85 billion that equals $425,000.00.

The plan is to give $425,000 to every person 18+ as a We Deserve It Dividend.

Of course, it would NOT be tax free.  So let’s assume a tax rate of 30%.
Every individual 18+ has to pay $127,500.00 in taxes.

That sends $25,500,000,000 right back to Uncle Sam.

But it means that every adult 18+ has $297,500.00 in their pocket.  A husband and wife has $595,000.00.

What would you do with $297,500.00 to $595,000.00 in your family?

. . . Pay off your mortgage - housing crisis solved.

. . . Repay college loans - what a great boost to new grads

. . . Put away money for college - it’ll be there

. . . Save in a bank - create money to loan to entrepreneurs.

. . . Buy a new car - create jobs

. . . Invest in the market - capital drives growth

. . . Pay for your parent’s medical insurance - health care improves

. . . Enable Deadbeat Dads to come clean - or else

. . . Help non-profits meet unmet needs

Remember this is for every adult U S Citizen 18+ including the folks who lost their jobs at Lehman Brothers and every other company that is cutting back. And of course, for those serving in our Armed Forces.

If we’re going to re-distribute wealth let’s really do it.  Instead of trickling out  $1 000 ( a ploy to buy our vote? ) economic incentive that is being proposed by one of our candidates for President.

If we’re going to do an $85 billion bailout, let’s bail out every adult U. S. Citizen 18+!

As for AIG _ liquidate it.  Sell off its parts.  Let American General go back to being American General.  Sell off the real estate.  Let the private sector bargain hunters cut it up and clean it up.

We deserve it and AIG doesn’t.

Sure it’s a crazy idea that can ‘never work’ . . . or can it?  How can we get someone with ‘power’ to even listen?

But can you imagine the Coast-To-Coast Block Party!  How do you spell Economic Boom?

I trust my fellow adult Americans to know how to use the $85 Billion.  We Deserve It Dividend more than do the geniuses at AIG or in Washington DC

And remember, The Plan only really costs $59.5 Billion because $25.5 Billion is returned instantly in taxes to Uncle Sam.

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2008-09-26 (Friday) by Gregory Tucker.

This evening I watched the UNL May 2008 graduation commencement speech published on the UNL EN Thompson Forum Podcast. Having obtained my degree recently from an online college, I was unable to take part in the commencement ceremony in the area, due to schedulng conflicts. Anyway, here are the facts from UNESCO:

World population is about 6.7 billion people. Fewer than 1 in 20 live in the United States. Nebraska population is just 3 one-hundredths of 1%. Roughly one-third poeple in the world have no classroom experience. Four billion people have had less than a sixth grade education. Fewer than 4% have college degress–4.6 billion people have far less education than American college graduates. If the entire auditorium were the population of the world, college graduates would be only the front row.

I wonder how much that number decreases when you look at post-graduate educaiton rates. Nevertheless, it is a reminder how unique and fragile is our existence.

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2008-09-23 (Tuesday) by Gregory Tucker.

LinkTV’s Intelligence Report suggests Israel is planning to bomb Iran’s nuclear reactor during the month of October 2008. Israel’s air force is more than capable of achieving the objective, and political realities dictate the strike should occur sooner rather than later:

• Israel and administration officials cannot predict how Obama will react to the suggestion, but it appears it would be unfavorable, notwithstanding his commitment of continued support of the nation.
• Creating or escalating a national security threat before the election would arguably favor the White House incumbent, John McCain, over his challenger. 

The report claimed the U.S. denied Israel the rights to fly over Iraq, presumably because that would tie the administration too closely to the strike. The Administration would prefer to keep such an attack at arms length, but they can’t seriously think they are kidding anyone–everybody in the region knows Israel cannot achieve such a move without its permission plus our military intelligence.

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2008-09-22 (Monday) by Gregory Tucker.

While doing some research I ran across this poll by Gallup.

The data confirms what I always believed, which is the Republican Party is officially a Christian party. Whereas the Republican party punditocracy (owning half the stations on the AM radio dial) claims their beliefs represent the overall population, the data shows that on the issue of belief in God, the views of independent voters are more consistent with the Democrats.

However, independents exhibit less belief in God than either Republicans or Democrats. It really makes me wonder who are these independents, and what are their religious beliefs in general.

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2008-09-20 (Saturday) by Gregory Tucker.

I agree with this article–it is time to reinstate the Glass-Steagall Act, which banned banks from being brokerages, and vice-versa.In reality, it won’t happen. The government perceives it needs as many buyers as possible to rescue the brokerages, and those eligible suitors include Bank of America. Talk of Glass-Steagall may come back in 2 years, but not now.

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